As we start to look to 2024, what should we expect?
I predict 2024 will be another slow year, similar to 2023. This does NOT mean that people should refrain from buying or selling. Oftentimes the best opportunities are in down years. The market is much less frantic than it has been since 2018 (the two examples above notwithstanding!)
Why do I think 2024 will be slow?
Simply put, people are not feeling optimistic.
People tend to make big real estate decisions when they feel good about the future. In 2020, the Pacific Northwest was pleased with the election of President Biden and excited about the prospect of Covid Vaccines. Combine that optimism with low interest rates and we had a voracious market appetite for buying and selling homes.
Compare this to how people are feeling currently. Headlines right now do not inspire optimism: global conflict, economic uncertainty, and what will likely be a rancorous presidential election. And, to put it mildly, interest rates are not helping.
Does this mean you should not buy or sell in 2024? As always, it depends on your situation. There are definitely values to be had.
Consider buying if you can restructure your portfolio to purchase real estate in cash, or with a smaller amount of debt. Now is a great time to consider buying a rental unit or a home for kids/ grandkids.
Or, if you need to borrow a lot but know that you have reserves to pay for a high mortgage for the next year, you could very well come out ahead in the long run.
If you're selling, know that you'll need to price to reflect higher interest rates (overall Seattle is down around 15%), but your value may not be down as much as you think it is, and there are so few homes for sale that your house will most certainly be seen.
Don't be distracted from this key fact:
HOUSING INVENTORY IS NOT GOING UP.
Inventory is our main challenge and very little is being created right now. Because supply will remain low, it means a massive drop in prices is extremely unlikely. On the contrary, it suggests that when interest rates go down again, we'll see an increase in pricing.